“They were very skeptical, saying that Nigeria typically crafts brilliant policies that could engender diversification but lacked the ability to fully implement them,” were the exact words with which Godwin Emefiele, Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), described the pessimism with which the international investment community scoffed at the idea of Nigeria succeeding at the attempt to diversify its economy.
But such doubts have now been cleared by the streams of successes in the effort, which was capped on Monday by the commissioning of the largest single-train refinery in the country, a testament to the fact that the country not only had the capacity, but both the natural and human resources to solve its economic problems over time, the CBN, boss, said at the commissioning of the $20billion Dangote Refinery project, in Lagos, on Monday.
Emefiele, who paid a lot of tribute to President Muhammadu Buhari, for his foresight and support for the policies that led to the achievement of the feat, said the success of the diversification efforts Nigeria had embarked upon under his government, would remain a constant reminder of his legacy in power, much as the future gains would remain assured.
His words: “It shows that, regardless of what the world thinks, Nigeria can be self-sufficient in all products that we consume and at the same time export our excess output to the rest of the world. Your Excellencies, please permit me to recall the events leading to Nigeria’s eviction from the JP Morgan index in 2017 following their pessimism on Nigeria’s economic outlook and our ability to take charge of our fortunes.
“At that time, we had explained the ongoing efforts to diversify our economic base, through import substitution and export promotion strategies, to sustainably attain self-sufficiency. They were very skeptical, saying that Nigeria typically crafts brilliant policies that could engender diversification but lacked the ability to fully implement them. Even when we insisted that, under the leadership of President Muhammadu Buhari, that the ongoing efforts will be actively implemented to diversify the economy and make the country globally competitive; they still doubted us.
“Aside from enumerating our strategic efforts in agriculture and other critical sectors, a sterling project that we highlighted to our foreign investor community was this gigantic Dangote Refinery and Petrochemical project. Your Excellencies, they doubted our willpower to succeed with this project. In hindsight, I could appreciate their skepticism because they do not understand how a single individual could build a refinery capable of serving an entire nation and continent. To them, projects of this magnitude are usually only undertaken by sovereigns not individuals. But like Nelson Mandela once famously said, “it always seems impossible until it is done.”
“Today, Your Excellencies, it is with extreme delight that I say that President Mandela’s quote has come true for us. The impossible has today become possible. I am glad that we never doubted ourselves. Under President Muhammadu Buhari’s leadership, this seemingly unattainable project has berthed and, correspondingly, under the incoming administration of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, Nigeria will cease importing petroleum products, fertilizer and petrochemical that drained over US$26 billion in FOREX in 2022. The self-sufficiency in refined petroleum, urea, and polypropylene, which Nigeria has attained with this project is a strong testament to how leadership, dedication, focus, commitment, and resilience has helped Nigeria in its drive towards import substitution and export orientation.”
Emefiele, assured Nigerians that the take-off of the refinery, would bring numerous economic benefits to the country, including generation of thousands of direct jobs and millions of indirect jobs, with over 135,000 permanent jobs, in addition to generating up to 12,000MW of electricity. “More importantly, this project avails Nigeria with significant savings both in terms of foreign exchange and in easing the fiscal burden on the Federal Government. Available data at the Central Bank of Nigeria as of 2014, shows that at least 30 percent of the foreign exchange required to meet Nigeria’s import needs went into the importation of refined petroleum products.
“It is instructive to note, distinguished guests, that according to the balance of payments statistics, the cost (including freight) of petroleum products imports into Nigeria doubled over a five-year period from about US$8.4 billion in 2017 to US$16.2 billion (indicating an annual average of US$11.1 billion), before rising further to US$23.3 billion by end-2022.
“At this rate, the average annual cost of petroleum products imports to Nigeria could reach US$30 billion by 2027 if we continued to rely on petroleum imports. These figures suggest that the refinery could engender foreign exchange savings to the country, of between US$25 billion and US$30 billion annually,” he said.